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Consequences of Karnataka Election 2018




Scenario 1
The Congress gets a full majority

IMPACT
- Massive boost for the Grand Old Party
- Win establishes Rahul Gandhi's leadership
- Siddaramaiah soars in Congress hierarchy
- Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh polls migraines for the BJP.

Scenario 2
The Congress falls short of a majority
IMPACT
- JD(S) rejects a Siddaramaiah-led Congress
- INC hunts for Dalit CM
- Mallikarjun Kharge, Parameshwara likely faces
- JD(S) drives a hard bargain with the Congress.


Scenario 3
The BJP is the single largest party, but falls short of a majority
IMPACT
- The Modi-Shah strategy works
- The Congress loses its best chance
- JD(S) strikes a deal, joins BJP alliance
HD Kumaraswamy becomes deputy CM.


Scenario 4
The Congress and the BJP are neck and neck
IMPACT
- BJP better placed to form the government
- Congress tries to break the JD(S)
- Resort politics takes centre stage
- JD(S) plays kingmaker

Scenario 5
The BJP gets a full majority
IMPACT
Modi-Shah duo simply unstoppable
- Congress fades as a national force
- Body blow to Rahul Gandhi
- BJP upbeat about Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan.


1 | The mystery of the high turnout
- A record 72.13 per cent of voters took partin the election
- It's the highest turnout since 1952; the average of the last five polls was 68.27 per cent
- There was a big jump in Old Mysore and Bombay-Karnataka
- Polls showed low-anti incumbency
- The BJP and the RSS strove to mobilise voters.


2 | The performance of the Reddy brothers
- Exit poll: Reddy brothers struggling
- BJP trailing in urban and rural Bellary
- Voters could mask voting intention
- Eight Reddy associates in fray
- Bellary brothers managed 22 seats in Bellary, Raichur, Chitradurga.


3 | Close fights in Bombay-Karnataka
- Maximum close fights in this region
- Exit poll: BJP dominates in 30-50 seats
- Tough fight in 10 seats
- A marginal loss may impact the BJP's overall tally
- Maximum bombardment by BJP and Congress netas.


4 | How much will JD(S) crack?
- Axis Exit Poll: Major fall in JD(S) seat share
- Muslims apprehensive of BJP-JD(S) alliance
- Poll: 77 per cent of Muslims voted for the Congress
- Strong performance by JD(S) key to BJP's chances
- Tactical alliance between BJP-JD(S) on many seats.