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When the "Kursi" is at Stake



The stakes are high for the BJP government and more so for PM Narendra Modi this assembly election in Gujarat.  The disastrous outcomes of the policies (read the surprise currency note ban that shook the nation) undertaken by our beloved PM has left a bitter aftertaste (read economic discontent) in the people of his home state. While the GST (Goods and Services Tax) could have catapulted Modi’s image as a great tax reformer in the pages of history of the country, unfortunately the erratic implementation (like, sindoor costs less now compared to sanitary napkins, which is a necessity for young girls and women, what a joke, right!). So, this further enraged the people of the country especially small business owners. 

All these, the experts believe, might have a huge impact on the result of the Gujarat poles of 2017, evident from the narrowing margin between BJP and Congress (read Modi and Rahul Gandhi). Besides this, there is a rift in the BJP party itself apparently. The discontent stoked by Modi’s whimsical decisions, the current state of maintenance and development of the Gujarat state is so much so that  the staunch supporters of the Bhajpa wants to vote for Congress just to “teach them a lesson”. Even if BJP wins this election Modi’s lead in the polls has shrunk amid grumbling about the economy. This may greatly influence Modi's chance of national re-election in 2019, with significant implications for the national economy. 

The pre-poll survey conducted by the Platform for Election Analysis and Community Studies (PEACS), a popular Exit Poll organization that in the past has predicted almost every election results accurately. A spokesperson of the PEACS told a local news agency CNS that they conducted election survey taking 4000 samples randomly from 40 assembly segments and after thorough analysis they arrived at this conclusion that Congress Party is going to form the next government in Gujarat. 

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Although Modi himself seems confident that BJP will win this election and form the state government like it has been doing for the past nineteen or so years. In more recent news reports after the first phase of polling held on 9th December (second phase to be held on 14th December), Confident of retaining most of its seats in Saurashtra and South Gujarat in the first phase of Gujarat elections held on Saturday, BJP is now looking to make significant gains in North Gujarat, especially Banaskantha that was affected by severe flooding in July. The north region comprises 32 seats spanning six districts of Gandhinagar, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Aravalli, Mehsana and Patan. Congress had won 17 of these seats in 2012 while BJP won 15. 

What do you think would be the outcome of the Gujarat polls this year? Will BJP win? And will it be because of Modi’s personal popularity among the people of Gujarat? 

Feel free to leave your comments below.